Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Professor, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Tehran University
2 PhD student Economy, University of Western Australia
3 MA Economy, Mofid University
Abstract
Conspicuously enough, Millennium Development Goals (UN-MDG) indexes cover the various aspects of economic development in countries. Indeed, MDGs are collected from the World Bank and the IMF indexes that were used for monitoring economics status. Every member of the UN is subjected to report the required data in former designed format and frequency. Furthermore reported data and usage of indexes provide tremendous chance to compare the countries with each other. In 2004, Iran adopted a strategic vision named “Iran 1404” that suggests Iran to be the 1st country in the Middle East and Central Asia region in economic, social, cultural aspects. By using almost 20 years data provided by MDG indexes and the use of ADF and ARIMA time series models the index values of countries in 2015 are estimated and in the result by ranking Iran position among Middle Eastern and central Asian countries in the year 2015 is forecasted. Due to lack of data in some indexes a combination of graphical trend analysis and ARIMA models are used. In conclusion in the year 2015 Iran would be not be in the 5 high rank countries in the 3rd goal of MDG and serious changes in policies are needed to be made
Keywords
)